Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 24.121007 26.545090 29.278021 32.625554 36.670136 41.474145 47.732189
2025-02-09 20.778392 23.948964 27.832083 33.079071 40.230728 50.068104 65.550058
2025-02-16 18.449680 21.970278 26.550107 33.230007 43.310754 59.223554 89.971544
2025-02-23 16.592204 20.220118 25.150437 32.773095 45.272470 67.592186 121.013328
2025-03-02 15.326139 19.041008 24.280802 32.811396 47.933725 78.579476 173.748744
2025-03-09 14.246163 17.964627 23.364608 32.532196 49.902607 89.505977 254.876465
2025-03-16 13.338254 17.023278 22.503902 32.142571 51.508003 100.917686 395.983146
2025-03-23 12.586318 16.229977 21.762186 31.800979 53.091926 113.880760 703.291930
2025-03-30 11.968042 15.576893 21.160356 31.591949 54.904819 129.803074 1757.992588
2025-04-06 11.328461 14.838816 20.341030 30.834047 55.193554 141.031936 7305.243368
2025-04-13 11.146670 14.787842 20.646791 32.303322 61.671730 190.902521 NaN
2025-04-20 10.697528 14.281261 20.123486 31.999864 63.253539 220.545258 NaN
2025-04-27 10.344861 13.911086 19.813850 32.123837 66.296416 273.172889 NaN
2025-05-04 10.048403 13.612088 19.602844 32.432533 70.165137 358.224211 NaN
2025-05-11 9.747241 13.285840 19.312965 32.519035 73.418716 473.061712 NaN
2025-05-18 9.401138 12.865260 18.816010 32.052481 74.510366 579.686217 NaN
2025-05-25 9.142709 12.576718 18.541884 32.077831 77.626842 827.275472 NaN
2025-06-01 8.868881 12.247691 18.166578 31.803934 79.459571 1163.223601 NaN
2025-06-08 8.603112 11.919514 17.770326 31.426576 80.742968 1688.896917 NaN
2025-06-15 8.360721 11.620230 17.410208 31.096655 82.174732 2795.841387 NaN
2025-06-22 8.147835 11.362174 17.113634 30.894900 84.220297 6762.392141 NaN
2025-06-29 7.893317 11.022010 16.636670 30.164474 83.296969 12158.908585 NaN
2025-07-06 7.868203 11.078304 16.945016 31.579620 94.978433 NaN NaN